What the Upcoming Budget Means for You
Inflation easing, a cooling housing market and a big fiscal event on the horizon - here’s what we’re watching, and what it could mean for your mortgage and money plans.
Quick snapshot
Budget date: 26 November 2025
Inflation: 3.6% in October (first fall in five months, still above the 2% target) The Guardian
Base rate: 4.0%, with markets now expecting a possible cut in December Financial Times
Average mortgage rates: c. 4.9–5.0% on 2–5 year fixes, drifting down but not collapsing MoneyWeek
North West house prices: £215,030 average, annual growth around 3.4% but small monthly falls GOV.UK
RICS sentiment: buyer demand in negative territory, market in a “pre-Budget holding pattern”
Let’s unpack what that actually means for you.
1. Inflation: Pain easing, but not gone
The latest data shows UK inflation at 3.6% in October, down from 3.8% in September — the first decline in five months and a welcome step away from last year’s highs. The Guardian
Energy and housing-related costs have eased slightly, but food prices are still rising faster than average, so most households don’t feel much better off yet. The Guardian
For mortgages, this matters because:
Lower inflation makes it easier for the Bank of England to justify future rate cuts.
Markets are now pricing in a strong chance of a base rate cut in December if the data stays on track. Financial Times
What this means for you:
We’re not back to “cheap money” territory, but we’ve likely passed the peak-pressure phase. Future changes to your mortgage rate are now more likely to be small steps down or sideways, rather than big jumps up - subject, of course, to what the Budget does to confidence and borrowing costs.
2. House prices & sentiment: UK vs North West
UK picture
The UK House Price Index shows annual house price growth at around 2–3%, with some regions flat or slightly negative month-on-month. GOV.UK
Surveyors are reporting:
New buyer enquiries: a net balance around -24% in October, the weakest since spring. RICS
Described by RICS as a market in a “holding pattern” ahead of the Budget — buyers and sellers waiting to see if tax or housing announcements change the maths.
North West focus
In the North West:
Average price: ~£215,000
Monthly change: around -0.9%
Annual change: +3.4% - still positive, but slower than last year’s pace.
So locally we’re seeing:
Less “froth” in prices
More realistic asking values
A clearer split between well-priced, good-quality stock (which still sells) and everything else (which sticks)
What this means for you:
Buyers: A calmer market and slightly softer prices can give you more negotiating power — but don’t assume big discounts; quality homes are still attracting interest.
Sellers / movers: Pricing realistically is crucial. A good agent and solid Agreement in Principle will help your sale stand out in a cautious environment.
Landlords: Rents are still edging up faster than prices in many areas, helping to support yields even as capital growth cools. The Guardian
3. What might change in the Budget?
Until the Chancellor stands up, everything is technically “speculation” — but there are some consistent themes across the previews:
Possible areas to watch
Council tax reform at the top end
Reports suggest a surcharge on high-value homes (bands F–H) and revaluation of around 2.4m properties, with roughly 300k facing higher bills.
This could hit larger family homes and more expensive parts of the country hardest, but also influences investor appetite at the upper end.
Potential tax rises to plug the “black hole”
Analysts expect a package of stealth tax measures, threshold freezes and targeted changes rather than headline hikes to income tax, VAT or NI. Grant Thornton
Landlords & property investors
Commentary has floated options like:
Tweaks to stamp duty on higher-value or additional properties
Further adjustments to reliefs and allowances (e.g. CGT or IHT)
Possible targeted measures aimed at professional landlords or second homes
A possible “exit tax”
Some legal and tax commentators are speculating about an “exit tax” on people leaving the UK tax net, similar to regimes in other countries — but this is far from confirmed.
None of this is certain, and we’ll only know the detail once the Budget is delivered — but it’s sensible to assume:
The direction of travel is towards raising more revenue from wealth, property and higher earners rather than broad cuts.
4. Mortgage rates: a flat(ish) line, not a cliff edge
Since the Bank of England’s base rate cut in August and its decision to hold at 4% in November, fixed mortgage rates have gently edged down and then largely flattened off.
Recent updates show:
Average 2-year fixed around 4.9%
Average 5-year fixed around 4.9–5.0%
Some lenders now offering sub-4% deals in lower LTV bands.
Big high-street names and specialist lenders alike have been trimming pricing in small steps rather than making dramatic moves.
What this means in practice:
If you’re remortgaging in the next 6–9 months, you’re no longer staring at the worst-case scenarios we were worried about a year ago.
If your deal ends within the next 3–6 months, it may be worth getting options ready now — rates could improve further, but markets are already pricing in a fair bit of good news.
Many people are effectively “holding their breath” until the Budget, waiting to see if markets react badly (pushing rates up) or positively (allowing lenders to sharpen pricing).
5. So, what does this all mean for you?
If you’re a homeowner or home mover
A calmer market + slightly lower rates = a more predictable environment to plan in.
If your fixed rate expires in the next year, it’s worth reviewing your options around the Budget / next BoE decision, rather than leaving it to the last minute.
If you’re a landlord or portfolio investor
Yields are being supported by firm rental growth while price growth cools.
The Budget could affect:
your running costs (council tax, potential landlord-focused changes),
your exit strategy (CGT or any future “exit tax” rules),
and your structure (personal vs SPV).
This is a good moment to check whether your portfolio is set up in the most efficient way before any rule changes bite.
If you’re a first-time buyer
A slightly softer market and improving rate environment can work in your favour.
But tax and benefit changes in the Budget could affect disposable income and affordability.
Getting Agreement in Principle and a clear affordability assessment gives you confidence to act quickly once the dust settles.
6. One smart move before the Budget
Use this window to get clarity, not guess.
We’re helping clients right now to:
Check remortgage windows and potential savings.
Stress-test move or keep decisions (move home vs retain and let out).
Model investor scenarios under different potential tax changes.
If you’d like us to sense-check your position before the Budget headlines hit:
🔗 Book a free 30-minute “Budget & Mortgage Check-In” →
Manchester Independent Mortgages Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA 431647).
The information above is for guidance only and does not constitute personal advice.
Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.